Olmert has announced he is moving to resign after his party’s primaries. This may mean his successor as head of the Kadima Party could succeed him as prime minister. But I wouldn’t count on it.
Kadima was formed by Ariel Sharon (refuah hashalem aleih) to break free from the traditionally dominant parties, Likud and Labour. When Sharon became incapacitated before elections, Olmert became leader of the Kadima Party. As a sign of support for Sharon and his policies, Kadima was swept into power.
But Olmert was and is no Sharon. Many of his policies have been disastrous for Israel. He’s probably as dovish as the Labour Party.
After being unable to secure Israeli national security (including botching the recent Israel-Lebanon war), and making outrageous concessions, Israel may very well ditch Kadima and sweep Likud back into power.
Whenever Israel feels threatened, Likud wins. Whenever everything’s fine, Labour wins.
I’m looking forward to Olmert being out, replaced by either a smarter Kadimanik or by Likud. Israel has some work to do to reestablish deterrence, thanks to Olmert.
* haShem is what religious Jews use to refer to God